KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 3 -- Budget 2020, to be tabled on Oct 11, should be people-centric, growth-focused and confidence-driven, IQI Global chief economist Shan Saeed said.

He said with threats of a global recession knocking on the doors of many advanced economies, the trade war disrupting exports, the rising cost of living, and income supplements for B40 households, the upcoming budget was perhaps the most important budget in several years.

“The real test for Budget 2020 will be how the government addresses these vital issues while also maintaining fiscal discipline.  

“With a prudent economic strategy, we forecast a gross domestic product growth of between 4.4 per cent and 4.9 per cent in 2020.  Price inflation should remain stable under two per cent and the budget deficit should remain manageable,” he said in a statement.

Shan was hopeful that the Pakatan Harapan government, via its second budget tabling (post-14 General Election), would continue to maintain a prudent monetary policy, propel the current good economic trajectory, and bolster business sentiment at the macro-level.

“We also hope that the government will propose structural reforms to pass on the benefits of economic growth to the public in general, at the same time establishing a stronger balance sheet, solid fiscal side, and healthy current account surplus.

“The trade war is hurting global trade, but it is also an opportunity for Malaysia. If the government can help the country capture elements of the supply chain that is moving out of China, then Malaysia could benefit from the trade war,” he said, adding that the ongoing trade dispute between the two economic giants would create more employments, drive innovation, fuel economic growth, and create a confidence driven progression.

Shan said general theme should be to maintain solid macro fundamentals that would keep Malaysia on the radar of global investors in the long run.

IQI Global expects the discount rate to hover around 2.5 per cent to 3.0 per cent in 2020.

IQI Global is a real estate agency with more than 6,000 real estate agents in Malaysia, Southeast Asia, and the rest of the world.

-- BERNAMA